Experts offer bullish outlook for Colorado鈥檚 economy, but warn of significant, and continued, uncertainties ahead鈥�.
Christy Hynes, vice president of global metal supply chain at Ball, answers a question during the Business Economic Outlook Forum. 'We have solutions, but not quick fixes' to the supply-chain crisis, she said.
If you were hoping the nation鈥檚 supply-chain struggles and labor shortages would resolve themselves after the busy holiday season, you may want to think again.听
That was the theme of panel discussions at the annual Colorado Business Economic Outlook Forum on Dec. 6, which featured industry experts in manufacturing, real estate, agriculture, life sciences and other disciplines. Even the most optimistic experts said a return to normalcy isn鈥檛 likely until late 2022.听
鈥淲e have solutions, but not quick fixes,鈥� said Christy Hynes, a vice president with Ball Corp. 鈥淓very solution will take at least a year before we start seeing results.鈥澨�
Speakers pointed out that vulnerabilities in the global supply chain are features, not bugs, as they are part of a 30-plus-year strategy focused on 鈥渏ust-in-time鈥� availability and minimal production and labor costs. The pandemic merely exposed many holes all at once, and forced businesses to get creative about meeting customer demand.听
Can-do attitude
For instance, all those cans of hard seltzer you drank to cope with being quarantined? Ball had to scramble to get materials from suppliers to make them.听
鈥淲e鈥檙e the world鈥檚 largest can makers, so we could afford to say, 鈥楾hey鈥檒l sell to us no matter what,鈥欌�� Hynes said. 鈥淣ow, we have to be their customer of choice. We have to redefine how we treat and value them.鈥澨�
For Ball, part of the solution was helping its suppliers build out their own backup plans to help them weather the storm while using that collaboration to build stronger relationships. Johns Manville Corp. also put renewed focus on customer relationships, said Kath Vigars, a vice president with the manufacturer.听
鈥淲e鈥檙e communicating early and often, with a lot of transparency about needs versus nice-to-haves,鈥� Vigars said. 鈥淲e need to know what鈥檚 going to a building, or a roof or commercial job, versus just inventory.鈥澨�
That鈥檚 because Johns Manville, like other manufacturers, is seeing customers place the same order with multiple companies, which puts added stresses on suppliers for orders that ultimately are canceled.
鈥淲e鈥檙e working hard to fulfill these orders, and when it gets canceled 鈥� you have no idea how disruptive that can be,鈥� Vigars said. 鈥淓specially when you鈥檙e fighting fires every day to make sure our customers get the materials they鈥檙e asking for and desperately need.鈥�
'It's hard to find talented people'
Other, broader solutions involve taking a harder look at what real estate panelists called 鈥渞eshoring,鈥� or stepping back from offshoring production to faraway markets, as well as how to fix labor shortages. Tommy Dirks, a senior vice president at Trammell Crow, called labor the biggest challenge for the real estate industry.听
鈥淚t鈥檚 hard to find talented people now,鈥� Dirks said. 鈥淚鈥檇 be feeling pretty good if I was a student interested in getting into real estate鈥攂ecause I graduated from CU at the other end of the spectrum, back in 2008, and it was a much different story.鈥�
The forum also included a panel session on entrepreneurship as an economic driver, especially in Colorado, along with a highly detailed forecast by Richard Wobbekind, faculty director of the Business Research Division at Leeds, and Elizabeth Garner, state demographer for Colorado. The forecast, which was prepared with the help of 130 business leaders across industries, was generally hopeful, with employment growth predicted for each of the state鈥檚 13 categories, and a gain of nearly 74,000 jobs, in 2022.听
鈥�(Colorado is) outperforming the nation, but slower than the top states.鈥�
Richard Wobbekind, faculty director, Leeds Business Research Division
But there are warning lights blinking on the dashboard, from new COVID variants and inflation to continued supply-chain woes and鈥攅specially in recreation and farming鈥攄rought.听
鈥淪ince the recovery from the last recession, we have consistently and constantly been a top 5 to top 10 economy,鈥� Wobbekind said. 鈥淚 personally do not believe the forecast we鈥檙e presenting here today would keep us in a top 10 position, more like a top 15 position鈥攐utperforming the nation, but slower than the top states.鈥�
The Colorado Business Economic Outlook Forum is an annual forecast of the Leeds School of Business and its Business Research Division. For the first time, the event was presented in person at the Grand Hyatt Denver and also livestreamed; about 800 professionals registered to attend the 2022 forecast.听
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